ROME – It is a scenario that doctors had warned about, but which is now becoming reality faster than expected: the flu season in Italy has hit with full force. According to the RespiVirNet monitoring system of the Supreme Institute of Health (ISS), 2.1 million Italians have been confined to their beds since the beginning of autumn. This is due to an aggressive mix of rhinoviruses, COVID-19, and, increasingly, influenza viruses. The timing is particularly striking: the season has shifted forward by a good three to four weeks – a trend that has also been confirmed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
One of the driving forces behind this early start is the new variant of the influenza A virus H3N2 (subclade K). Laboratory analyses conducted last week paint a clear picture: 11.2 percent of the samples tested were positive for influenza viruses. Last year, this figure was not reached until mid-December. As is so often the case, the youngest are hardest hit: more than 25 cases per 1,000 inhabitants were recently recorded among young children.
Warning of a difficult season
The forecasts of infectious disease specialists are grim. Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at Policlinico San Martino in Genoa, is very clear about the current situation. He warns that up to 20 million people—one in three Italians—could fall ill this winter. „It is a very clever virus that mutates similarly to Covid,“ explains Bassetti. The new variants are able to circumvent both natural immunity and the protection provided by previous vaccinations.
The expert is particularly critical of the situation in light of experiences in the UK, where people are already talking about a „semi-disaster“ despite the high vaccination coverage rate there. In Italy, on the other hand, the situation looks bleak in terms of prevention.
Vaccine hesitancy as a risk
Bassetti sharply criticizes the lack of preparedness in the country: „We are moving backwards like crabs.“ Currently, only one in five Italians is getting vaccinated, and among seniors, it is only one in two—far from the World Health Organization's target of 75 percent.
The Society for General Medicine (Simg) is also urging caution. Data from the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, points to an intense season. Doctors are therefore urgently appealing to people not to delay vaccination. Every percentage point increase in the vaccination rate means fewer hospital admissions and less pressure on clinics. The simultaneous administration of protective vaccinations against influenza, COVID-19, and pneumococci is often recommended. One ray of hope is the high acceptance of prophylaxis against the RS virus in newborns, while there is still room for improvement among pregnant women and seniors.
